The next three months will be cardinal to ensuring who emerges winner in 2023. There will be major political shifting, “alignments and realignments”, break-ups, and political intensity. But in earnest, the elections are already won by THE October 2023 winners.
Unlike the case with legislative seats, most of those eager to register to vote for President already know WHO THEY WANT TO VOTE FOR. A percentage of voters would be swayed by family members, friends, campaign paraphernalia, etc. What is going to happen is that winners may now make a deliberate choice to lose by their day to day actions beginning January 1. As it stands, it is clear who the two top runners are. This is a painful truth like it is in every election. The voters have a way of narrowing these races to two major contenders.
Here are four things that will shift the political dynamics during the next three months:
1. RUNNING MATE
What is clear is the electorate already know Weah (the incumbent’s) running mate- Jewel. Everyone’s waiting for Joseph Boakai to name his running mate to determine what to do next. When Boakai names his running mate, there will be major adjustments, shifting, alignments and realignments. Some people will go, some will stay. Other Presidential Candidates will now figure out what to do next with themselves and how to proceed. One Political Leader/Presidential aspirant told me recently, ‘let’s see what he’s going to do. It will determine whether my county will support him or not.”
2. RESOURCE MOBILIZATION
With 10 months to go, a lot will take place in the next three months as preparation for campaign, voters education, and registration. The incumbent clearly is strongest here. Opposition leaders will need just a portion of what Weah has kept to rival him. Incumbents are usually in a bubble believing money will make the case , the new reality is that it is Weah that everyone wants to replace. He has never been tested in a political situation of “me against the world”. In 2017, he was one of 19 others going against one man (JNB), who was defending while 19 Candidates were attacking from different angles, different perspectives and different resources. Now, JNB is attacking while Weah is going to be defending against 6, 7, 8, or 9 others, who will be attacking as well from different angles. Defending from many fronts can be difficult. Simple mistake, you’re out. Let’s see how he copes.
3. DIPLOMATIC MANEUVERS
Clearly, the administration has been on the wrong side of partners from the very get-go. From diverting donors money that prompted a letter signed by all major partners in Liberia demanding that the government pays back, to 16 billion saga, to key U.S diplomats referring to the government as “kleptocratic”, to sanctions on key officials, to threats of further sanctions, to China’s diplomatic slowdown with the administration (fueled by Liberia’s vote at the UN against China), to a diplomatic nuanced “courtesy visit” by His Excellency, the Chinese Ambassador on the eve of 2023 to one of the opposition Candidates( students of diplomacy know the visit was an intentional diplomatic gesture nuanced in a “courtesy visit”), to the U.S calling a few African leaders to specifically advise and fund “peaceful and credible” elections in their countries. When the head of a home is called or invited by the head of another home to say “make sure you have fair play in your house”, it simply means you are not trusted to have a fair play in your own house. It is a diplomatic way of warning you to “DO THE RIGHT THING”. Watch out for the next three months.
4. POLITICAL INSTABILITY IN CONTENDING PARTIES
What is evidently clear is that major contenders have internal battles to brace for.
Weah– The split in the NPP at this time (10 months to go) could cost him dearly. The Jewel/Biney conflict could dash the chances of the Coalition if not handled quickly. Bible says: “Any house divided against itself will not stand”. Pay attention to the words “ANY HOUSE “. In 2017, the division in the UP was a contributing factor to the party’s “defeat”.
JNB– He has a major task of naming ONLY ONE PERSON as running mate. ONLY ONE person can occupy that role. Clearly, whoever he names will cause celebration in some quarters and upset in some quarters. Rightfully so, politics is interest. How he handles pockets of dissatisfaction will be key in the coming months for him. Who he names will also be key. And he has to do so ASAP.
Cummings– the CPP recently announced that it is “asking the police” to help investigate one of its key men/ Secretary General of a collaborating party over the mysterious disappearance of a whopping US$70K intended for the “We tiyah suffering” rally. Rightfully so, to hold people accountable, but it would be interesting if the S.G of LP( in the CPP) is found liable of mistrust. Unfortunately so, this could be a tricky situation if not handled with care. Pay attention. Besides, naming his running mate could also spark dissatisfaction from others who anticipated the slot. There is also an entrenched perception that Cummings still does not have the numbers after all his efforts. People act what they perceive. The perception that he’s struggling for numbers is hurting his chances especially with months to go. Some may not want to take an unnecessary risk just to end up deciding on one of the very two in a second round, that they previously avoided, yet others will still want to give it a try due to his resource strength. Anything is possible. We’ll see how that plays out in the coming days/months.
Gongloe– The MDR’s decision to select Koon as its Political Leader could hurt Gongloe’s negotiating power. It has even caused concerns of picking a running mate from Nimba. If not Gongloe or koon, then who in Nimba at this point? Unwise to pick from Nimba now? Well, let’s see….
As always during elections, there will be financially induced endorsements, crowd debates, and money splashing for votes. As much as all of those could help, voters can be deceptive. There’ll also be sincere endorsements. There is already a fight for the PLP of the late Cassell to pledge support for aspirants. How much will that benefit anyone remains to be seen. Also a fight to get the endorsement of ALCOP of Lusine Kamara. But, he most likely, will be on the ballot, which paves his way for a potential second round negotiation.
Perception is everything!
Just my one cent! You’re free to disagree or agree; no case. But save this post.
Few hours to this wonderful 2023. It’s time to rumble. It’s time to choose!
